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Impact Forecasting : German flood scenario model to help insurers estimate exposure from the recent event

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Impact Forecasting has launched a scenario model for the recent German floods. Using event footprints that outline the extent of the flood enables insurers to obtain a more realistic estimate of their specific exposure.

The footprint of the flood event is based on images from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) & Astrium Services / Infoterra GmbH, which are publicly available due to the International Charter “Space and Major Disasters”, and from SERTIT supplied by PERILS and available free of charge on www.perils.org. These footprints are then converted to ELEMENTS format and uploaded to the Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation platform. In ELEMENTS the hazard is then superimposed onto the insurer’s portfolio to calculate exposed sums insured. Insurers can chose from three different footprints based on either of the two individual sources provided or through a combination of both.

As the flooding is still ongoing, the footprints will be continuously updated with new developments.

Adam Podlaha, international head of Impact Forecasting, commented: “This highlights the flexibility of the ELEMENTS platform to integrate different third party data. This enables our clients to obtain several perspectives on the effect of such an event within a few days after and even when it is ongoing.”

Petr Puncochar, head of flood modelling at international Impact Forecasting, added: “Incorporating high resolution satellite images into catastrophe models shows how the insurance industry can benefit if the right kind of remote sensing data are available.”

The new German tool builds upon Impact Forecasting’s suite of new scenario models which also enable insurers and reinsurers to validate existing probabilistic models and examine specific events in territories where no models currently exist. In addition, firms can monitor exposure in key areas and provide more detailed information for reinsurance purchase and claims management.