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RMS : comment on tropical storm Nate and Maria

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Tropical Storm Nate has moved only a little from its position over the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico.  The system has in the mean time strengthened to a strong tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the system remaining over the Bay of Campeche for the next few days, with a general northwest trend during this time towards the Mexican coast.  It is then forecast to make landfall late Sunday/ early Monday. Nate is further south than was forecast yesterday, increasing the certainty in the track towards Mexico and diminishing the likelihood of the system tracking northward. Model guidance, as of 06:00 UTC on Friday, September 9, has changed significantly from that of 24 hours previously – tracking Nate towards the central Mexican coast, with only two models taking the system north.

The NHC forecasts the strengthening of the system, and suggests Nate could become a hurricane later today.  If it does so, it will become the third hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Season. The NHC intensity forecast is to the upper end of model guidance – a strong Category 1 hurricane. Model guidance does not forecast the strengthening to a major hurricane, most likely due to the proximity of the system to land and the presence of dry air to the northwest.

Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the Mexico coastal regions of the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Nate is causing heavy rains and high winds to coastal regions of the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southern Veracruz.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Storm Maria continues to track quickly towards the Lesser Antilles with no change in intensity. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for Guadeloupe, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

Under the current forecast from the NHC, the system will track over the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm before passing over the eastern Greater Antilles at tropical storm strength.  It will then turn to the northwest to track to the east of the islands in the Lucayan Archipelago. It is too early at this time to determine if the storm will be a threat to the U.S.

Source : RMS